The future is not set in stone and there are many ways it could play out. There is value in taking the time to discuss what we think might happen in the future. By doing this, we will realize that each of us carries different assumptions — yet, none of us know exactly what will happen.

To develop alternative scenarios of the future of housing and care for older adults in Canada, we used a standard strategic foresight methodology. To do this, we convened the Building with Mission Steering Committee over the course of three workshops to bring together the expertise of healthcare delivery providers, affordable housing developers, mission-driven organizations and human-centred design methodologists.

Scenarios provide a useful and accessible tool to help us think about how the future may unfold in a structured and comprehensive way. In particular, when multiple different stakeholders are impacted by (and can influence) a given future, scenarios are a powerful way to initiate dialogue and build alignment on how we prepare for the future.

I/ More of the Same

System Complexity | Seniors in the Shadow
Increased Public Investment in Community Support | Focus on Facility-Based Care

This scenario imagines a future where system complexity makes it difficult to build new types of seniors housing and where seniors’ needs and preferences are not at the forefront of government or corporate decision making. 

II/ Lots and Lots of Beds

System Alignment | Demanding Better for Seniors
Increased Public Investment in Community Support | Focus on Facility-Based Care

This scenario imagines a future where policy alignment makes it easier to develop new seniors housing and care models and where seniors’ needs and preferences are a priority for government and the private sector.

It also imagines a future where existing funding silos remain intact and where there is additional funding for traditional “beds” but not for alternative care solutions.